Happy New Year! Yes I realize it’s the end of January. Thanks for the reminder. It’s hard to believe we just saw off the end of year two for licensed soccer collectibles built on blockchains. It’s also hard to believe some of the news we’ve seen in the last 30 days in the space with the CEO of Fanatics, Michael Rubin, announcing their divestment of Candy NFT along with a scathing review of standalone NFT businesses in general. Shortly after in early January, Wyre, ToppsNFT’s 3rd party wallet provider, declared it was scaling back and/or winding down operations. ToppsNFTs (reminder, owned by Fanatics), made an announcement they were closing the shop and the marketplace out of precaution until further notice (Exhibit A for why it’s important to own your private keys), and the latest update on their blog mentions the closure will last through the end of February… Not ideal, not how I wanted to start my year in review article, but here we are. Your move Rubin.

Blockchain, A Short History

I have vivid memories of reading about Bitcoin in the Summer of 2010 and beginning to track the technology out of curiosity.

Don’t worry, this isn’t a Bitcoin pitch, but I do want to highlight the fact that if any of us had the foresight to invest, at any point, between 2010 and 2016, we’d be up a minimum of 16X our investment. Why?

1. Blockchain technology is real and it works. Yes exchanges have been hacked. Yes FTX scammed billions. Yes there will be more hacks and scams in the future, yet the industry is still moving forward. While it’s currently the wild wild west in terms of consumer protections (i.e. there aren’t any), it’s worth getting educated on the space in the meantime. Blockchain technology fits the collectibles space like a glove for a long list of reasons and isn’t going away.
2. User adoption. Whether you believe Bitcoin/blockchain is scam or not, it’s use cases are real and more people, governments, and companies are looking to it as both a productivity tool as well as a financial instrument/investment. Companies, (big ones like PayPal, Shopify, Amazon), are investing in blockchain and Web3.

EPL, WHY ARE YOU BORING US WITH THIS SHIT?! TALK ABOUT SOCCER NFTs!

Historical context of blockchain is important when discussing the future for soccer NFT’s or any other blockchain asset. Why?

“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it” – George Santayana, The Life of Reason, 1905.

I’ll let you discern your own conclusions from that quote relative to this article (and the Bitcoin chart).

Moving on with some pros and cons for each set from 2022…

2021-2022 French League 1 Foot FR Sticker NFTs

Panini kicked us off this year with its 21/22 season French League 1 Foot FR Sticker NFT’s in February. I’ll admit while I monitored the drop, I didn’t commit any funds to it at the time (pretty dumb)… More on that later.

Pros:

• First ever “sealed” soccer set from Panini Blockchain – they had done Dutch auctions for 1/1’s with physical counterparts prior, but this was their first NFT set released as sealed digital packs.
• First “pack pulled” appearances (on any chain) for pretty much every single player in the checklist including Messi, Mbappe, Neymar, and plenty of young prospects
• @ $5/pack it was a great entry point to get the dopamine flowing while giving everyone the chance for a big hit.
• Sold Out! – Always a good sign for any NFT drop

Cons:

• Mint counts – the drop is comprised of a 2,280 sticker checklist (lol) with serials ranging from legendary black 1/1’s all the way up to base /2599. With the base set of 360 players, that means you have 935,640 base sticker NFTs. A million base sticker NFT’s…right….moving on
• Not fully licensed – for whatever reason, Panini contracted directly with the National Union of Professional Footballers. This resulted in no league badges, or team logos (other than what appeared on the players jerseys) for this NFT set. Will it matter long term? Probably not.
• Built on Panini’s “private blockchain” on Hyperledger Sawtooth, Panini lack basic tools expected of a blockchain, (to be fair, these are expected to be delivered along with the company’s long awaited website launch in the near future)

Recommendation: Firsts are firsts, whether they’re in the form of a static, half-licensed sticker not. Add in Messi, Mbappe, and Neymar and you have yourself a great anchor to Panini’s first ever blockchain soccer release. I’ll be aiming to add low numbered parallels of these three to my collection by the end of 2023.

2021-2022 Bundesliga Series 2, 3, and 4 NFTs

Next up is ToppsNFT’s Bundesliga Series 2, 3, and 4 drops in March, May, and June respectively.

Series 2 was ToppsNFT’s best soccer release of the year. A 10 player checklist containing Jude Bellingham (1st appearance), Florian Wirtz (1st video moment), Dominik Szoboszlai (1st appearance), and Jonathan Burkardt (1st video moment) , with a guaranteed rare video moment felt like an average to above average expected value @ $45 per pack retail.

Series 3 was a rough drop, no two ways about it. With an increase to a 15 player checklist and the only chase @ drop time (Georginio Rutter anyone?) being Jamal Musiala (1st video moment), this is still the only soccer drop from ToppsNFTs in the 21/22 season that didn’t sell out. Packs can be had on secondary for less than retail.

Series 4 dropped in June and had the community in an uproar.

A 25 player base checklist, plus an additional 18 players for the new “Club Phenom” patch/auto/moment insert NFT. Not ideal. The community had been struggling to absorb the supply from the constant drops, and now found themselves starting down the barrel of a 43 player checklist including a Haaland Club Phenom insert. Exponentially increasing supply while diluting our existing Haaland NFT’s at the same time. Lame. What happened to 10 player checklists full of chases?

Summarizing Bundesliga Series 2, 3, and 4 drops Pros and Cons:

Pros:

• First blockchain appearance for Jude Bellingham (S2)
• First video moments for a host of other young Bundesliga stars including Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala, Christopher Nkunku, Dominik Szoboszlai, Jonathan Burkhardt, and more
• ToppsNFTs are built on a public blockchain (AVAX)
• More Haaland NFT’s available in S4 packs if you missed out on S1 and S0

Cons:

• More Haaland NFT’s if you loaded up on the first drops (2021 Series 1 & Series 0)
• Each subsequent drop was larger than the previous one
• At the time of these drops Topps had no international withdrawal setup for those outside the USA – quite a roadblock to onboarding any of the 3 billion people that watch the sport. As of this today, they have added Germany and Canada, while also adding support for Wise, a 3rd party borderless payments solution provider that seems to work for most countries.

Recommendation: The Series 2 drop could end up going down as one of the best soccer drops of all time in our opinion. Whether you’re ripping packs or buying moments from Topps secondary market, Bellingham is clearly going to be, or already is, one of the next superstars in the sport and Series 2 is his first appearance on blockchain. With a max supply of 2,266 total Bellingham’s, and only 700 of those being video moments, it’s easy to see supply of these drying up as web3 continues gaining traction. Wirtz, Szoboszlai, and Burkardt all contain mint counts similar to Bellingham.

Series 3 turned into a Jamal Musiala or bust chase. Probably easier to just buy it on secondary market. Georginio Rutter’s surprise Leeds transfer has helped this drop a bit, his production remains a question.

Series 4 was Topps best selling NFT drop of the year. A number of factors here but the inclusion of Haaland and Lewandowski, after it was known both would be departing for other leagues the following season, made this an easy buy at the time. We also saw first video moments for some other big names such as Christopher Nkunku and Moussa Diaby.

2021-2022 Mosaic La Liga NFTs

Panini’s 2nd soccer set to release was it’s 2021-2022 NFT Mosaic La Liga drop. It contains a 200 player base checklist, plus inserts and parallels, identical to its physical counterpart.

The first “card” style soccer drop from Panini, with the added shimmer animation effect for parallels, comes in with a strong set of debutants including Gavi RC, Pedri, Vinicius Jr., Joao Felix, Luka Modric, Karim Benzema, and more.

Pros:

• First licensed collectible NFTs for the stars of La Liga including Pedri, Gavi, Benzema, Modric, and others
• First “card” NFT soccer set from Panini w/ added animation/shimmer effects
• Identical crossover to the physical set, and a known brand in Mosaic, so would be familiar to a physical collector interested in getting involved
• $10 per pack – low cost of entry with chance of hitting something huge
• A 78% reduction (wow!) in total minted NFTs vs Foot FR sticker set.
• Panini’s second consecutive sellout for soccer drops

Cons:

• Mint counts… both a pro and con, 269,000+ NFTs is still WAY too many for a drop based on current demand, although it’s good to see something smaller than the 1.2m Panini minted in Foot stickers
• Parallels and inserts – are we really mature enough as a market to warrant 16 different Pedri NFT’s in a single drop? I’m saying no
• Built on Panini’s “private blockchain” on Hyperledger Sawtooth, Panini lack basic tools expected of a blockchain, (to be fair, these are expected to be delivered along with the company’s long awaited website launch in the near future). Is there an echo in here?

Recommendation: It’s hard to ignore all the pros for this one. I’m upset at myself for passing on it in May while simultaneously bombing into what was arguably ToppsNFT’s worst drop of the 2021-2022 season in Bundesliga Series 3. First appearances from Pedri, Gavi (RC), Balde (RC), Isak, Fati, Griezmann, Casemiro, Camavinga, Valverde, de Jong, Joao Felix, Benzema, Suarez, Modric, Vinicius Jr., Pino (RC), Musah, and others will more than likely make this an iconic long term set. I’ll be keeping an eye on the secondary market and making some gallery offers over the next few months.

SPFL 21-22 Shining Stars NFTs

The drop no one saw coming… In June, just one month after getting the first ever La Liga drop plus Haaland and Lewandowski’s last appearances in their Bundesliga club kits, Topps unveiled its Scottish Professional Football League Shining Stars Digital Collectible NFT Cards. (Is there an NFT boom in Scotland I’m unaware of?)

A rather large checklist for a drop no one really asked for or saw coming, SPFL was the dud we expected only selling about 20% of the total supply to date. I do think the team crests are nice, and I do like these versions much better than Topps previous attempts with Bundesliga crests.

Pros:

• First (and possibly last) ever SPFL player appearances
• Animated badges for all the team crests

Cons:

• Complete surprise of a drop to a community already treading water in over-supply
• Smaller audience for SPFL collectibles in general

Recommendation: It’s possible there are some hidden diamonds in here (Calvin Ramsey was purchased by Liverpool not long after this drop) but speaking broadly, I’m not sure the Scottish Prem is where I’d be placing my long term bets on soccer NFT’s

2022-2023 Bundesliga Kickoff NFTs

In October, Topps gave us our first taste of this season’s Bundesliga NFT’s, and it tasted absolutely terrible

Pros:

• First appearance for Adeyemi and Hlozek
• It’s on a public blockchain (I’m struggling with pros on this one)

Cons:

• Huge checklist relative to historical ToppsNFT drops
• No video moments and no comms from Topps as to whether we’ll see video moments for this season
• Looks like it was made in MS Paint

Recommendation: The color splash NFT’s do look decent, but overall this is an absolute stinker of a drop. Stay away unless you’re really into prospecting.

2022 Mosaic Road to World Cup NFTs

After swerving the first two Panini soccer releases like some snob-nosed techie version of a Karen, Road to the World Cup in November finally broke me. My original train of thought had been something along the lines of, “Panini isn’t a real blockchain, everyone will realize this and no one will buy anything.”

I then proceeded to watch them sell out two enormous soccer drops in a row and suddenly realized nobody else gave a shit. Time to change tact. Instead of turning my nose up at these first appearances, I was an active buyer on secondary from the start.

Pros:

• First ever FIFA World Cup licensed drop (although this is technically Road to the World Cup)
• First ever international kit licensed drop
• First appearances (a recurring theme here in 2022) for Ronaldo, and quietly, most of the entire English Premier League…
• Identical crossover to the physical set, and a known brand in Mosaic, so would be familiar to a physical collector interested in getting involved

Cons:

• Mint counts – following a much more community-friendly sized drop in La Liga Mosaic, Panini turned on the digital printers again with 150k+ packs @ $10 & 3 NFTs/pack.
• First soccer drop from Panini that didn’t sell out
• Built on Panini’s “private blockchain” on Hyperledger Sawtooth blah blah blah blah blah blah…

Recommendation: If NFT’s make it in the long run, we’ll look back at this set as one of the quietest releases of all time. Overshadowed by the $30,000 Messi bounty for World Cup Prizm less than 30 days after it’s release, the irony here is of course the sheer amount of blockchain debuts in the RTWC set due to the fact there’s still no licensed UEFA Champions League, nor English Premier League NFT’s as of this writing. Technical objections aside, I’m a buyer, especially at the price points we’re currently seeing on secondary. (Note: Beware of “Prizm is King” stans on Discord and Twitter)

2022 Prizm FIFA World Cup NFTs

Dropping World Cup Prizm in December just 30 days after Mosaic Road to the World Cup (which hadn’t sold out, and still hasn’t), and exactly one day after the actual World Cup ended would seem a bit foolish, but some well-timed influencer marketing along with a $30,000 Messi bounty appearing at the eleventh hour gave this drop a shot out of the gate and a decent amount of momentum heading into the new year.

Pros:

• There was a $30K Messi bounty, duh
• First ever World Cup Prizm drop, with Prizm being viewed as the premium brand for retail World Cup physical releases
• Identical crossover to the physical set, making it familiar to a physical collector interested in getting involved
• $10 crack packs
• You can build a pretty nicely curated set of singles from the marketplace for relatively cheap
• National Landmarks, National Pride, and Color Wheel inserts don’t have parallels, making them relatively scarce @ only /22 each

Cons:

• Another 618,000+ NFT’s added to an absolutely flooded ecosystem bringing the total to over 2 million soccer NFTs minted in 2022. That’s too many
• $30k Messi bounty created a ripping mania, which in turn caused a supply glut on secondary markets, destroying near term value of almost all non-Messi NFTs
• Second consecutive soccer drop that didn’t sell out, and pack sales have gone flat post Messi bounty
• Not many blockchain debuts in the set
• Built on Panini’s “private blockchain” on Hyperledger Sawtooth, Panini lack basic tools expected of a blockchain such as an explorer, explorable wallets, and more. Although this sounds like a broken record, it’s worth repeating until they get it resolved. Transparency is a core value and benefit of blockchain technology and for Panini to ignore those benefits would really begin to raise some questions over the longer term. Let’s hope their new website launches soon and this becomes a moot point.

Recommendation: Prizm is King. It’s the World Cup. It’s Messi. It’s Mbappe. It’s all the things a soccer NFT drop should be, other than minted to the fucking moon, per usual Panini. As much as I try to avoid ripping packs, I succumbed to the $30K Messi bounty for a quick 10 ($100 total, no big hits for reference, but have still made about $60 back through selling cards into challenges, which we’ll expand on at a later date). Beyond this I’ve been buying some low numbered singles, including a few Black 1/1’s, from the secondary market where I think there’ll be some value longer term.

The next blog will be shorter, I promise. – EPL out